True Cost of Solar Hydrogen
E. Vartiainen, Christian Breyer, David Moser, E. Román, Chiara Busto, G. Masson, Elina Bosch, Arnulf Jäger‐Waldau
Abstract
Green hydrogen will be an essential part of the future 100% sustainable energy and industry system. Up to one‐third of the required solar and wind electricity would eventually be used for water electrolysis to produce hydrogen, increasing the cumulative electrolyzer capacity to about 17 TW el by 2050. The key method applied in this research is a learning curve approach for the key technologies, i.e., solar photovoltaics (PV) and water electrolyzers, and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Sensitivities for the hydrogen demand and various input parameters are considered. Electrolyzer capital expenditure (CAPEX) for a large utility‐scale system is expected to decrease from the current 400 €/kW el to 240 €/kW el by 2030 and to 80 €/kW el by 2050. With the continuing solar PV cost decrease, this will lead to an LCOH decrease from the current 31–81 €/MWh H2,LHV (1.0–2.7 €/kg H2 ) to 20–54 €/MWh H2,LHV (0.7–1.8 €/kg H2 ) by 2030 and 10–27 €/MWh H2,LHV (0.3–0.9 €/kg H2 ) by 2050, depending on the location. The share of PV electricity cost in the LCOH will increase from the current 63% to 74% by 2050.