Spatial and Temporal Global Patterns of Drought Propagation
Ignacio Fuentes, José Padarian, W. Vervoort
Abstract
Drought is the most expensive natural hazard and one of the deadliest. While drought propagation through standardised indices has been extensively studied at the regional scale, global scale drought propagation, and particularly quantifying the space and time variability, is still a challenging task. Quantifying the space time variability is crucial to understand how droughts have changed globally in order to cope with their impacts. In particular, better understanding of the propagation of drought through the climate, vegetation and hydrological subsystems can improve decision making and preparedness. This study maps spatial temporal drought propagation through different subsystems at the global scale over the last decades. The standardised precipitation index (SPI) based on the gamma distribution, the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on the log-logistic distribution, the standardised vegetation index (SVI) based on z-scores, and the standardised runoff index (SRI) based on empirical runoff probabilities were quantified. Additionally, drought characteristics, including duration, severity and intensity were estimated. Propagation combined the delay in response in the subsystems using drought characteristics, and trends in time were analysed. All these were calculated at 0.05 to 0.25 arc degree pixels. In general, drought propagates rapidly to the response in runoff and streamflow, and a with longer delay in the vegetation. However, this response varies spatially across the globe and depending on the observation scale, and amplifies progressively in duration and severity across large regions from the meteorological to the agricultural/ecological and hydrologic subsystems, while attenuating in intensity. Significant differences exist between major Köppen climate groups in drought characteristics and propagation. Patterns show intensification of drought severity and propagation affecting vegetation and hydrology in regions of southern South America, Australia, and South West Africa.