Uncertainty Quantification of Ocean Parameterizations: Application to the K‐Profile‐Parameterization for Penetrative Convection
Andre N. Souza, Gregory LeClaire Wagner, Ali Ramadhan, Benjamin D. Allen, Valentin Churavy, Jennifer M. Schloss, Jean‐Michel Campin, Chris Hill, Alan Edelman, John Marshall, Glenn R. Flierl, Raffaele Ferrari
Abstract
Abstract Parameterizations of unresolved turbulent processes often compromise the fidelity of large‐scale ocean models. In this work, we argue for a Bayesian approach to the refinement and evaluation of turbulence parameterizations. Using an ensemble of large eddy simulations of turbulent penetrative convection in the surface boundary layer, we demonstrate the method by estimating the uncertainty of parameters in the convective limit of the popular “K‐Profile Parameterization.” We uncover structural deficiencies and propose an alternative scaling that overcomes them.