COVID-19: urgent questions for estimating morbidity, prevalence, case fatality rate and mortality rate
O. M. Drapkina, I. V. Samorodskaya, Maria G. Sivtseva, Е. П. Какорина, Н. И. Брико, С. Н. Черкасов, Vsevolod Zinserling, П.Г. Мальков
Abstract
During epidemics, the usual statistical approaches will not allow determining the readiness of the public health system to take urgent measures to counteract the increase in morbidity, spread and mortality of the population. The quality of the medical, socio-economic and managerial decisions at all levels will depend on the accuracy of statistical data and the possibility of creating adequate prognostic models. However, there are still problems with the identification of COVID-19 cases and the diagnostic accuracy of the methods used. Complex analytical efforts require in order to determine the COVID-19 impact on the health status and case fatality rate/mortality rate.