A novel and scalable flood risk assessment framework for cultural heritage based on unmanned aerial vehicle photogrammetry and multi-scale rain-on-grid hydraulic modeling
Marcos Julien Alexopoulos, Theano Iliopoulou, Paraskevi Mode, Denis Istrati, Constantine C. Spyrakos, Sofia Soile, Styliani Verykokou, Charalabos Ioannidis, Demetris Koutsoyiannis
Abstract
This study presents a novel multi-scale flood risk assessment framework for cultural heritage sites, applied to the Temple of Apollo, Aegina Island, Greece. Three modeling configurations were developed and compared: (i) an island-wide Rain-on-Grid (RoG) hydraulic model at 5 m resolution, (ii) a site-only model driven by inflows from the island-scale simulation, and (iii) a high-resolution nested model coupling island-scale outputs with centimeter-scale site RoG simulations enabled by UAV photogrammetry. Simulations for 100-, 1000-, and 2000-year return periods revealed strong scale-dependent differences: island-wide inundation extents of 7.3–10.3 km 2 , site-specific inundation of 2–24 %, and water volumes of 92–1483 m 3 depending on the model configuration and return period. Flow velocities remained below 1.0 m/s, indicating low erosive potential but possible material degradation. Limestone deterioration analysis showed 4–10 % compressive strength reduction, 3–9 % elastic modulus decrease, and mass losses of 0.64–26.08 kg after 24-h inundations. The nested approach provided more realistic water volume accumulation over the single-scale model and revealed critical micro-topographic controls on flood behavior. This scalable, built on readily accessible tools (HEC-RAS and UAV), framework supports rapid deployment to heritage sites globally, enabling quantitative risk assessments for adaptation planning and conservation prioritization.