UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE IN SURVEY AND ADMINISTRATIVE DATA
Jeff Larrimore, Jacob Mortenson, David Splinter
Abstract
Abstract Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits were a central part of the social safety net during the COVID‐19 recession. UI benefits, however, are severely understated in surveys. Using administrative tax data, we find that over half of UI benefits were missed in major survey data, with a greater understatement among low‐income workers. As a result, 2020 official poverty rates were overstated by about 2 percentage points, and corrected poverty reached a six‐decade low. We provide data to correct underreporting in surveys and show that, compared to UI benefits, the UI exclusion tax expenditure was less targeted at low incomes.
Topics & Concepts
UnemploymentPovertyRecessionSurvey data collectionSafety netDemographic economicsCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)EconomicsSocial insuranceBusinessLabour economicsEconomic growthEnvironmental healthMedicineMathematicsPathologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)StatisticsMarket economyDiseaseKeynesian economicsEmployment and Welfare StudiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsTaxation and Compliance Studies