Maximally predictive states: From partial observations to long timescales
Antonio Carlos Costa, Tosif Ahamed, David Jordan, Greg J. Stephens
Abstract
Isolating slower dynamics from fast fluctuations has proven remarkably powerful, but how do we proceed from partial observations of dynamical systems for which we lack underlying equations? Here, we construct maximally predictive states by concatenating measurements in time, partitioning the resulting sequences using maximum entropy, and choosing the sequence length to maximize short-time predictive information. Transitions between these states yield a simple approximation of the transfer operator, which we use to reveal timescale separation and long-lived collective modes through the operator spectrum. Applicable to both deterministic and stochastic processes, we illustrate our approach through partial observations of the Lorenz system and the stochastic dynamics of a particle in a double-well potential. We use our transfer operator approach to provide a new estimator of the Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy, which we demonstrate in discrete and continuous-time systems, as well as the movement behavior of the nematode worm C. elegans.