A building-scale modeling framework for urban net-zero transitions in Nanjing
Yuxin Chen, Zhenyu Wang, Quan Wen, Jing Meng, Jingwen Huo, Shuping Li, Zhou Li, Peipei Chen, Diling Liang, Jun Bi, Dabo Guan
Abstract
Carbon reduction during the operational phase of buildings is a critical component in achieving global carbon neutrality objectives. Current emission estimation methods often overlook building-level heterogeneity, limiting precise retrofit strategies. Here, we develop a building-based emissions accounting framework incorporating building typology, function, and geometry, augmented by facility-level power plant data. We propose tailored operational-phase mitigation technologies, analyzing 2020-2050 pathways through baseline, regulatory, and blueprint scenarios. Demand-side strategies target energy behavior modification (e.g., efficient lighting), while supply-side interventions prioritize coal-to-biomass conversion and fossil plant retirement. Applied to Nanjing (534,000 buildings across 101 streets), results show commercial buildings exhibit 3.9 times higher carbon intensity than residential units. End-use efficiency upgrades (HVAC, lighting, appliances) prove most effective for commercial sectors, whereas supply-side gains derive primarily from accelerated coal plant phaseout before 2045 and renewable integration (solar/wind/nuclear). This approach provides actionable building-specific decarbonization pathways, offering policymakers science-backed strategies for urban energy transitions.