Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States
Morgan E. Gorris, James T. Randerson, Shane Coffield, Kathleen K. Treseder, Charles S. Zender, Chonggang Xu, Carrie A. Manore
Abstract
BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in humans in the United States. Since the introduction of the disease in 1999, incidence levels have stabilized in many regions, allowing for analysis of climate conditions that shape the spatial structure of disease incidence. OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to identify the seasonal climate variables that influence the spatial extent and magnitude of WNV incidence in humans. METHODS: . RESULTS: as having incidence levels over 11 times greater than those of counties that are wetter. Among the climate predictors, winter precipitation, fall precipitation, and winter temperature were the three most important predictive variables. DISCUSSION: We consider which aspects of the WNV transmission cycle climate conditions may benefit the most and argued that dry and cold winters are climate conditions optimal for the mosquito species key to amplifying WNV transmission. Our statistical model may be useful in projecting shifts in WNV risk in response to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10986.