Short-Term Effects of Atmospheric Pollution on Daily Mortality and Their Modification by Increased Temperatures Associated with a Climatic Change Scenario in Northern Mexico
Rosa María Cerón Bretón, Julia Griselda Cerón Bretón, Jonathan W. D. Kahl, María de la Luz Espinosa Fuentes, Evangelina Ramírez Lara, Marcela Rangel Marrón, Reyna del Carmen Lara Severino, Martha Patricia Uc
Abstract
Short-term effects of air pollution on the health of residents in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey, Mexico were assessed from 2012–2015 using a time-series approach. Guadalupe had the highest mean concentrations for SO2, CO and O3; whereas Santa Catarina showed the highest NO2 concentrations. Escobedo and Garcia registered the highest levels for PM10. Only PM10 and O3 exceeded the maximum permissible values established in the Mexican official standards. Most of pollutants and municipalities showed a great number of associations between an increase of 10% in their current concentrations and mortality, especially for people >60 years. Different scenarios resulting from climatic change were built (increases of 5–25% in daily mean temperature), but only the increase of 25% (5 °C) showed a significant association with air pollutant concentrations and mortality. All pollutants and municipalities showed significant increases in relative risk indexes (RRI) resulting from an increase of 5 °C when people >60 years was considered. Results were comparable to those reported by other authors around the world. The RRI were low but significant, and thus are of public concern. This study demonstrated that the elderly is strongly threatened not only by atmospheric pollution but also by climatic change scenarios in warm and semiarid places.