Possibility of mpox viral transmission and control from high-risk to the general population: a modeling study
Shiting Yang, Xiaohao Guo, Zeyu Zhao, Buasiyamu Abudunaibi, Yunkang Zhao, Jia Rui, Yao Wang, Wentao Song, Hongjie Wei, Tianmu Chen
Abstract
Abstract Background Mpox is an emerging infectious disease that is now a global hazard. The strategies for preventing and controlling mpox should be further investigated in terms of transmission characteristics, infection risk among different populations, and ideal therapeutic approaches. Methods A multi-group dynamic model was used to quantify the transmissibility of mpox. We further analyzed the transmission risk from men who have sex with men (MSM) to non-MSM and evaluated the effects of three intervention measures, including community-based prevention, early detection, and vaccination. Results The median value of effective reproduction number ( R eff ) and probability of contact via a single contact ( q ) among MSM worldwide is 3.11 (interquartile range [IQR]: 2.82–5.57) and 2.15% (IQR: 1.95–3.84%). We found that the cumulative incidence rate of non-MSM is much lower than that of MSM (< 1/2048) when the possibility of infection (including the percentage of high-risk behaviors of contact degree [ C ] and q ) was lowered to less than 1 in 100,000. When comparing the three intervention measures, if we want to control the cumulative incidence rate to 5.96 × 10 –8 we need to increase the vaccine coverage to 81% or reduce the transmission rate factor ( Cq ) to 70% or shorten the transmission period to 74%. Conclusions Mpox has high transmissibility in MSM, which required minimize the risk of infection and exposure to high-risk populations. Community prevention and control is the top priority of interventions to contain the spread of mpox.