Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic spread in a megacity
В. Г. Акимкин, С. Н. Кузин, Т. А. Семененко, O. Yu. Shipulina, S. B. Yatsyshina, E. V. Tivanova, Anna V. Kalenskaya, I. V. Solovyova, Vershinina Am, O. A. Kvasova, А.А. Плоскирева, M. V. Mamoshina, M. A. Elkina, В. В. Клушкина, E.E. Andreeva, А. В. Иваненко
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to analyze patterns demonstrated by the COVID-19 epidemic process in a megacity during the increase, stabilization and reduction in the incidence, and to evaluate the effectiveness of the epidemic prevention measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The comprehensive study incorporating epidemiological, molecular genetic and statistical research methods was conducted to analyze the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Moscow during the COVID- 19 pandemic. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: It was found that the exponential growth in COVID-19 cases was prevented due to the most stringent control and restrictive measures deployed in Moscow to break the chains of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and due to people who were very disciplined in complying with the self-isolation rules. The analysis of the dynamics in detection of new COVID-19 cases showed that in a megacity, the impact of social distancing and self-isolation would become apparent only after 3.5 incubation periods, where the maximum length of the period is 14 days. It was discovered that the detection frequency of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in relatively healthy population and its dynamics are important monitoring parameters, especially during the increase and stabilization in the COVID-19 incidence, and are instrumental in predicting the development of the epidemic situation within a range of 1-2 incubation periods (14-28 days). In Moscow, the case fatality rate was 1.73% over the observation period (6/3/2020-23/6/2020). CONCLUSION: The epidemiological analysis of the COVID-19 situation in Moscow showed certain patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 spread and helped evaluate the effectiveness of the epidemic prevention measures aimed at breaking the routes of transmission of the pathogen.