Identification of patients at risk of sudden cardiac death in congenital heart disease: The PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardIOverter defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease (PREVENTION-ACHD)

Abstract

BackgroundSudden cardiac death (SCD) is the main preventable cause of death in patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). Since robust risk stratification methods are lacking, we developed a risk score model to predict SCD in patients with ACHD: the PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardIOverter defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease (PREVENTION-ACHD) risk score model.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to prospectively study predicted SCD risk using the PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model and actual SCD and sustained ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) rates in patients with ACHD.MethodsThe PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model assigns 1 point each to coronary artery disease, New York Heart Association class II/III heart failure, supraventricular tachycardia, systemic ejection fraction < 40%, subpulmonary ejection fraction < 40%, QRS duration ≥ 120 ms, and QT dispersion ≥ 70 ms. SCD risk was calculated for each patient. An annual predicted risk of ≥3% constituted high risk. The primary outcome was SCD or VT/VF after 2 years. The secondary outcome was SCD.ResultsThe study included 783 consecutive patients with ACHD (n=239 (31%) left-sided lesions; n=138 (18%) tetralogy of Fallot; n=108 (14%) closed atrial septal defect; median age 36 years; interquartile range 28–47 years; n=401 (51%) men). The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model identified 58 high-risk patients. Eight patients (4 at high risk) experienced the primary outcome. The Kaplan-Meier estimates were 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.1%–13.3%) in the high-risk group and 0.6% (95% CI 0.0%–1.1%) in the low-risk group (hazard ratio 12.5; 95% CI 3.1–50.9; P < .001). The risk score model’s sensitivity was 0.5 and specificity 0.93, resulting in a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.57–0.90). The hazard ratio for SCD was 12.4 (95% CI 1.8–88.1) (P = .01); the sensitivity and specificity were 0.5 and 0.92, and the C-statistic was 0.81 (95% CI 0.67–0.95).ConclusionThe PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model provides greater accuracy in SCD or VT/VF risk stratification as compared with current guideline indications and identifies patients with ACHD who may benefit from preventive implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the main preventable cause of death in patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD). Since robust risk stratification methods are lacking, we developed a risk score model to predict SCD in patients with ACHD: the PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardIOverter defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease (PREVENTION-ACHD) risk score model. The purpose of this study was to prospectively study predicted SCD risk using the PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model and actual SCD and sustained ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) rates in patients with ACHD. The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model assigns 1 point each to coronary artery disease, New York Heart Association class II/III heart failure, supraventricular tachycardia, systemic ejection fraction < 40%, subpulmonary ejection fraction < 40%, QRS duration ≥ 120 ms, and QT dispersion ≥ 70 ms. SCD risk was calculated for each patient. An annual predicted risk of ≥3% constituted high risk. The primary outcome was SCD or VT/VF after 2 years. The secondary outcome was SCD. The study included 783 consecutive patients with ACHD (n=239 (31%) left-sided lesions; n=138 (18%) tetralogy of Fallot; n=108 (14%) closed atrial septal defect; median age 36 years; interquartile range 28–47 years; n=401 (51%) men). The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model identified 58 high-risk patients. Eight patients (4 at high risk) experienced the primary outcome. The Kaplan-Meier estimates were 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.1%–13.3%) in the high-risk group and 0.6% (95% CI 0.0%–1.1%) in the low-risk group (hazard ratio 12.5; 95% CI 3.1–50.9; P < .001). The risk score model’s sensitivity was 0.5 and specificity 0.93, resulting in a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.57–0.90). The hazard ratio for SCD was 12.4 (95% CI 1.8–88.1) (P = .01); the sensitivity and specificity were 0.5 and 0.92, and the C-statistic was 0.81 (95% CI 0.67–0.95). The PREVENTION-ACHD risk score model provides greater accuracy in SCD or VT/VF risk stratification as compared with current guideline indications and identifies patients with ACHD who may benefit from preventive implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation.

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