Effect of irrigation on humid heat extremes
Nir Y. Krakauer, Benjamin I. Cook, Michael J. Puma
Abstract
Abstract Most studies of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing focus on its cooling effects. However, irrigation also increases humidity, and so may not ameliorate humid heat and its extremes. We analyzed global climate model results over hot locations and seasons at high temporal resolution to estimate the impact of irrigation on humid heat extremes, quantified as different percentiles of wet-bulb temperature ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>T</mml:mi> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> ), under contemporary conditions. We found that although irrigation reduced temperature, the median and higher percentiles of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>T</mml:mi> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> on average did not decrease. Increases in <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>T</mml:mi> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> percentile values and increases in frequency of dangerous <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>T</mml:mi> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> of several days per year due to irrigation were found in some densely populated regions, including the central United States and the Middle East, while the Ganges basin saw reduced <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>T</mml:mi> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> . Changes in <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msub> <mml:mi>T</mml:mi> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">w</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:math> were partly associated with the differential regional impacts of irrigation on moisture transport. These results underline the importance of considering impacts of climate forcings on humidity as well as temperature in evaluating associated effects on heat extremes.