Developing a multi-level european-wide composite indicator to assess vulnerability dynamics across time and space
Andrea Sibilia, Gustav Eklund, Sepehr Marzi, Igor Valli, Christos Bountzouklis, Samuel Roeslin, Davide Rodomonti, Sandro Salari, Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Christina Corbane
Abstract
The escalating frequency of extreme climatic events and ongoing urbanisation expose European communities to increasing disaster risks, which are determined not only by the hazardous events themselves, but also by the exposure and vulnerability to these hazards. Consequently, effective risk management strategies cannot overlook a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing vulnerability of the communities. This paper addresses this need by presenting a European-wide framework for the development of a Vulnerability Index (VI) that evaluates vulnerability at both national and subnational scales. Adopting a multi-dimensional and multi-level approach, the VI captures socio-economic, political, environmental, and physical factors contributing to community resilience. A standardised, supranational methodology is employed, providing harmonised cross-country information and time series data for vulnerability and its underlying indicators. This comprehensive assessment facilitates the understanding of socio-economic dynamics, enabling the formulation of targeted policy actions at both country and subnational levels. By offering insights into current vulnerability trends, the VI underlines the importance of governance, economic factors, and disaster preparedness in reducing vulnerability at different administrative levels, while highlighting the role of social factors, such as poverty and social exclusion, in community vulnerability at sub-regional levels. • Vulnerability is described through socio-economic, political and physical factors. • Vulnerability Index provides sub-national data with a European-wide coverage. • Vulnerability trends are assessed, evaluated and analysed from 2005 to 2030. • Since 2005 vulnerability steadily decreased across Europe. • The interaction of socio-economic and political factors drives vulnerability patterns.