Tackling climate change impacts on biodiversity towards integrative conservation in Atlantic landscapes
André Fonseca, João A. Santos, Sandra Mariza, Mário Santos, José Martinho, José Aranha, Daniela Patrícia Salgado Terêncio, Rui Cortes, Thomas Houet, Gaëtan Palka, Cendrine Mony, Alexia María González-Ferreras, Ana Silió‐Calzada, João Alexandre Cabral, Simone Varandas, Edna Cabecinha
Abstract
Throughout the last decades, the increasing pressure of anthropogenic (climate and land-use) changes has been a major impact on biodiversity in several regions and habitat types. These drivers have disturbed the timing of reproduction in animals and plants as well as the migration of animals resulting in changes in population size and species distribution. Our study analyses the impact of climate change in the spatial distribution of selected species, between historical period (1950–2018) and future period (2041–2070), in four case studies at a watershed level over the Atlantic region, highlighting the importance of integrating landscape trends to anticipate key biodiversity pattern responses. The results were compared to predicted future climate projections (2041–2070), based on two IPCC scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), using a 5-model ensemble developed under the EURO-CORDEX project. Further, complementary downscaling methodologies were applied, allowing the increase of the spatial resolution from ~12 km to ~1 km in all climate variables. Land cover maps were developed using the Forecasting Landscape Scenarios Model. We assessed the impact of projected climate change and land cover development on specific vulnerable species distribution for each case study. The results showed an overall temperature increase for all case studies and both representative concentration pathways scenarios and a shift in potential habitat area of species addressed to areas upstream of the catchments. These predictions have a strong importance in defining conservation strategies of these vulnerable species, and may overall bring guidelines for the management of Atlantic landscapes in response to climate change, namely as pertinent ecological indicators under realistic future changing regional scenarios.