A new conceptual model of global ocean heat uptake
Jonathan M. Gregory, Jonah Bloch‐Johnson, Matthew P. Couldrey, Eleftheria Exarchou, Stephen M. Griffies, Till Kuhlbrodt, Emily R. Newsom, Oleg A. Saenko, Tatsuo Suzuki, Quran Wu, L. Shogo Urakawa, Laure Zanna
Abstract
Abstract We formulate a new conceptual model, named “ MT 2”, to describe global ocean heat uptake, as simulated by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced by increasing atmospheric CO $$_{2}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow/> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:msub> </mml:math> , as a function of global-mean surface temperature change T and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC, M ). MT 2 has two routes whereby heat reaches the deep ocean. On the basis of circumstantial evidence, we hypothetically identify these routes as low- and high-latitude. In low latitudes, which dominate the global-mean energy balance, heat uptake is temperature-driven and described by the two-layer model, with global-mean T as the temperature change of the upper layer. In high latitudes, a proportion p (about 14%) of the forcing is taken up along isopycnals, mostly in the Southern Ocean, nearly like a passive tracer, and unrelated to T . Because the proportion p depends linearly on the AMOC strength in the unperturbed climate, we hypothesise that high-latitude heat uptake and the AMOC are both affected by some characteristic of the unperturbed global ocean state, possibly related to stratification. MT 2 can explain several relationships among AOGCM projections, some found in this work, others previously reported: $$\bullet $$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mo>∙</mml:mo> </mml:math> Ocean heat uptake efficiency correlates strongly with the AMOC. $$\bullet $$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mo>∙</mml:mo> </mml:math> Global ocean heat uptake is not correlated with the AMOC. $$\bullet $$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mo>∙</mml:mo> </mml:math> Transient climate response (TCR) is anticorrelated with the AMOC. $$\bullet $$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mo>∙</mml:mo> </mml:math> T projected for the late twenty-first century under high-forcing scenarios correlates more strongly with the effective climate sensitivity than with the TCR.