Advancing the understanding of earthquake risk in Portugal
Gonçalo Correia Lopes, Vítor Silva, Catarina Costa, Romeu Vicente, Carlos Sousa Oliveira
Abstract
Abstract The assessment of earthquake risk at the national scale is crucial for the design and implementation of risk reduction measures. Due to its location in the southwest of the Eurasian plate, Portugal is exposed to moderate to strong seismic events, such as the well-known 1755 Lisbon earthquake. We reviewed existing studies covering exposure, seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for Portugal, and performed probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analyses for the country using new model components. These include a new exposure model developed for the residential building stock using the 2021 national Building Census Survey, a recent exposure model for commercial and industrial buildings, updated vulnerability functions for 116 building classes, and the recently released European Probabilistic Seismic Hazard model. The seismic risk results include average annual economic losses, fatalities, buildings with complete damage, and population left homeless. These results allowed the identification of the regions in Portugal with the highest earthquake risk, as well as which building classes contribute the most to the overall impact.