The Impact of Urban Warming on the Mortality of Vulnerable Populations in Seoul
Jack Ngarambe, M. Santamouris, Geun Young Yun
Abstract
Climate change influences urban mortality. The magnitude of such influences differs from locality to locality and is fundamentally driven by a facet of factors that include changes in local climatic conditions, demographics, and social-economic factors. Here, we employ regression and clustering methods to study linkages between mortality and local climatic changes in Seoul. Personal factors of the deceased (e.g., age and gender), social-economic factors (i.e., education level), and outdoor climatic factors, including heatwaves (HWs) and the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon are considered in the analysis. We find that, among many elements of outdoor weather factors considered, the apparent temperature mostly correlated to daily mortalities; the mortality risk to apparent temperature exposure is more heightened for males (RR = 0.40, 95% CI; 0.23–0.54) than females (RR = 0.05, 95% CI; −0.10–0.20) at higher apparent temperatures (i.e., 60 °C). Furthermore, the influence of HWs on mortality is more apparent in the “Male” gender group and the “Above 65” age group. The results are useful in identifying vulnerable demographics amid the changing climate, especially in urban areas, and are fundamental in developing policies that promote climate resilience and adaptation.