COVID-19: how much unemployment was caused by the shutdown in Germany?
Anja Bauer, Enzo Weber
Abstract
This paper evaluates the short-term labour market impact of the COVID-19 containment measures in Germany. By assessing the treatment effect on unemployment via difference-in-difference estimation, we find that 60% of the considerably increased inflows from employment into unemployment in April 2020 were due to the shutdown measures. Disentangling further, we find that the hiring margin accounted for additional 82% of the unemployment effect coming from the separations margin. In sum, the shutdown measures increased unemployment in the short run by 117,000 persons.
Topics & Concepts
ShutdownUnemploymentMargin (machine learning)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Economics2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)EstimationDemographic economicsJob lossContainment (computer programming)Labour economicsMacroeconomicsMedicineOutbreakEngineeringManagementMachine learningPathologyVirologyProgramming languageInfectious disease (medical specialty)Nuclear engineeringComputer scienceDiseaseEmployment and Welfare StudiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsCOVID-19 epidemiological studies