The emerging roles of 3D and 4D geophysical and geological modelling in evaluating seismic risks: A critical review
Joseph Omeiza Alao
Abstract
Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) is crucial in mitigating the hazards associated with earthquakes, particularly in tectonically active regions. This study critically examines the emerging roles of 3D and 4D geophysical and geological modelling in assessing SHA, focusing on advancements, applications, and limitations. 3D geophysical modelling provides high-resolution spatial representations of fault networks, stress distributions, and seismic-prone zones. In contrast, 4D geophysical modelling integrates temporal dynamics to analyze subsurface variations or fault systems over time. Based on the previous studies, the quantitative data highlight the effectiveness of real-time seismic monitoring, with stress accumulation rates varying between 0.01% and 50% during seismic events. Time-lapse seismic data improves forecasting precision, with early warning detection reducing seismic uncertainties by over 30%. Additionally, studies show enhanced fluid migration tracking using 4D seismic modelling, leading to a 25% increase in hydrocarbon recovery efficiency. These advancements aid in urban planning, infrastructure resilience, and hazard mitigation strategies. However, challenges remain in data acquisition, computational demands, and model interpretation. The integration of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing is expected to improve predictive modelling accuracy, ensuring more effective SHA. The findings emphasize the significance of geophysical modelling in disaster preparedness, reinforcing the need for technological advancements to enhance seismic hazard mitigation strategies and infrastructure safety.