Spatial-temporal Dynamic Forecasting of EVs Charging Load Based on DCC-2D
Shurong Peng, Heng Zhang, Yunhao Yang, Bin Li, Sheng Su, Shijun Huang, Guodong Zheng
Abstract
The charging load of electric vehicles (EVs) has a strong spatiotemporal randomness. Predicting the dynamic spatiotemporal distribution of the charging load of EVs is of great significance for the grid to cope with the access of large-scale EVs. Existing studies lack a prediction model that can accurately describe the dual dynamic changes of EVs charging the load time and space. Therefore, a spatial-temporal dynamic load forecasting model, dilated causal convolution-2D neural network (DCC-2D), is proposed. First, a hole factor is added to the time dimension of the three-dimensional convolutional convolution kernel to form a two-dimensional hole convolution layer so that the model can learn the spatial dimension information. The entire network is then formed by stacking the layers, ensuring that the network can accept long-term historical input, enabling the model to learn time dimension information. The model is simulated with the actual data of the charging pile load in a certain area and compared with the ConvLSTM model. The results prove the validity of the proposed prediction model.