Photovoltaic Power Prediction Model Using Pre-train and Fine-tune Paradigm Based on LightGBM and XGBoost
Jiandong Ye, Binqi Zhao, Hua Deng
Abstract
Accurate photovoltaic power prediction is crucial for optimizing the performance of photovoltaic power plants and ensuring the stability of the power grid. However, existing forecasting methods are challenged when predicting the power output of multiple plants with different geographical locations and environmental conditions simultaneously, due to the complexity of the underlying factors that affect power generation. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel LightGBM-XGBoost photovoltaic power prediction model based on a pre-training and fine-tuning paradigm. The model leverages a large dataset to pre-train and learn rich feature representations within meteorological elements, which are then fine-tuned on specific downstream tasks to improve prediction accuracy and generalization ability. Experimental verification is conducted using data from three photovoltaic generators operating in Guangdong, China. Results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms other methods when predicting the power output of multiple plants with different conditions simultaneously, highlighting the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Overall, this work contributes to advancing the state-of-the-art in photovoltaic power prediction and has practical implications for improving the control and scheduling of photovoltaic power plants, as well as ensuring the stability and security of the power grid.