Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multi-model Ensemble
Malcolm Roberts, Alessio Bellucci, Benoît Vannière, Joanne Camp, Christopher D. Roberts, Dian Putrashan, Jennifer Mecking, Kevin I. Hodges, Laurent Terray, Louis‐Philippe Caron, Pier Luigi Vidale, Rein Haarsma, Retish Senan, Jon Seddon, Marie‐Pierre Moine, Chihiro Kodama, Yohei Yamada, Colin M. Zarzycki, Paul Ullrich, Ryo Mizuta, Dan Fu, Gökhan Danabasoglu, Lixin Wu, Nan Rosenbloom, Qiuying Zhang, Enrico Scoccimarro, Fabrice Chauvin, Sophie Valcke, Hong Wang
Abstract
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and mid-latitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multi-model ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250km to 25km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950-2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10m wind speeds by 2050.