Climate change could shift disease burden from malaria to arboviruses in Africa
Erin A. Mordecai, Sadie J. Ryan, Jamie M. Caldwell, Melisa M. Shah, A. Desirée LaBeaud
Abstract
Malaria is a long-standing public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, whereas arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) such as dengue and chikungunya cause an under-recognised burden of disease. Many human and environmental drivers affect the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this Personal View, we argue that the direct effects of warming temperatures are likely to promote greater environmental suitability for dengue and other arbovirus transmission by Aedes aegypti and reduce suitability for malaria transmission by Anopheles gambiae. Environmentally driven changes in disease dynamics will be complex and multifaceted, but given that current public efforts are targeted to malaria control, we highlight Ae aegypti and dengue, chikungunya, and other arboviruses as potential emerging public health threats in sub-Saharan Africa.