A strategic framework for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Risk Reduction in the Himalayas under climate change
Riyaz Ahmad Mir, Sanjay Jain, Rayees Ahmed, Abid Farooq Rather
Abstract
Climate change presents a complex challenge with far-reaching environmental, social, economic, and political consequences—particularly in the Western Himalayas. This region is experiencing rapid glacier retreat and mass loss, primarily driven by rising temperatures and shifting other climatic patterns. The shrinking glaciers are intensifying the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), posing significant threats to downstream communities and vital infrastructure. With over 5000 glacial lakes—more than 200 classified as potentially dangerous—the Himalayan region faces mounting hazards due to the expansion and instability of these lakes. Notable GLOF events, including those at Kedarnath in 2013, Gya in 2014, and South Lhonak in 2023, underscore the urgent need for proactive risk reduction strategy framework. Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, among the most vulnerable areas in the Western Himalayas, have seen a sharp increase in the number and size of glacial lakes over the past decade, accompanied by a 40% rise in meltwater discharge—clear indicators of escalating climate impacts. Ongoing glacial retreat and permafrost degradation in these regions further compound the GLOFs threat. Addressing this growing risk requires an integrated and adaptive strategy, incorporating risk assessment, continuous monitoring, engineering interventions, community involvement, and robust policy support. This study reviews regional GLOF trends and vulnerabilities, particularly in the context of CMIP5-modeled climate scenarios, and proposes a five-step strategic framework aimed at enhancing resilience and Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Reduction (GLOFRR). The framework emphasizes scientific evaluation, real-time monitoring, structural mitigation, stakeholder participation, and adaptive governance. Drawing on lessons from Nepal, Bhutan, and India, the study advocates for strengthened transboundary cooperation and the integration of GLOFRR into broader climate adaptation and sustainable development initiatives. Urgent, coordinated action is crucial to build long-term resilience and safeguard the lives and livelihoods of millions dependent on the fragile Himalayan cryosphere.