ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world
Ed Hawkins, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh
Abstract
A new reanalysis-based approach is proposed to examine how reconstructions of extreme weather events differ in warmer or cooler counter-factual worlds. This approach offers a novel way to develop plausible storylines for some types of extreme event that other methods may not be suitable for. As a proof of concept, a reanalysis of a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 is translated into a warmer world where it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.
Topics & Concepts
Extreme weatherClimatologyMeteorologyHistoryEnvironmental scienceGeographyClimate changeOceanographyGeologyClimate variability and modelsTree-ring climate responsesTropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research