Mapping the cost competitiveness of African green hydrogen imports to Europe
Florian Egli, Flurina Schneider, Alycia Leonard, Claire Halloran, Nicholas Salmon, Tobias S. Schmidt, Stephanie Hirmer
Abstract
Abstract Governments in many European countries have high hopes for cheap green hydrogen (H 2 ) from Africa to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. Using geospatial levelized cost models, this study evaluates the economic feasibility of exporting green H 2 in the form of ammonia from Africa to Europe under four realistic financing scenarios by 2030. Our findings suggest that without European policy interventions, green H 2 from Africa remains prohibitively expensive with least costs from €4.2 kg H2 −1 to €4.9 kg H2 −1 depending on the interest rate environment. Using de-risking policy, we identify 214 locations in six African countries that may be competitive in the current interest rate environment, yet many of these face a challenging security situation casting doubt on long-term investments. Under optimal policy and interest rate scenarios, we find a least cost of €3.2 kg H2 −1 in Mauritania by 2030. Overall, de-risking and strategic location selection are key to make African green H 2 exports competitive on the global stage.