COVID-19 Risk Prediction for Diabetic Patients Using Fuzzy Inference System and Machine Learning Approaches
Alok Aggarwal, Madam Chakradar, Manpreet Singh Bhatia, Manoj Kumar, Thompson Stephan, Sachin Kumar Gupta, Saeed Hamood Alsamhi, Hatem Al-Dois
Abstract
Individuals with pre-existing diabetes seem to be vulnerable to the COVID-19 due to changes in blood sugar levels and diabetes complications. As observed globally, around 20-50% of individuals affected by coronavirus had diabetes. However, there is no recent finding that diabetic patients are more prone to contract COVID-19 than nondiabetic patients. However, a few recent findings have observed that it could be at least twice as likely to die from complications of diabetes. Considering the multifold mortality rate of COVID-19 in diabetic patients, this study proposes a COVID-19 risk prediction model for diabetic patients using a fuzzy inference system and machine learning approaches. This study aimed to estimate the risk level of COVID-19 in diabetic patients without a medical practitioner's advice for timely action and overcoming the multifold mortality rate of COVID-19 in diabetic patients. The proposed model takes eight input parameters, which were found as the most influential symptoms in diabetic patients. With the help of the various state-of-the-art machine learning techniques, fifteen models were built over the rule base. CatBoost classifier gives the best accuracy, recall, precision, F1 score, and kappa score. After hyper-parameter optimization, CatBoost classifier showed 76% accuracy and improvements in the recall, precision, F1 score, and kappa score, followed by logistic regression and XGBoost with 75.1% and 74.7% accuracy. Stratified k-fold cross-validation is used for validation purposes.