Assessing the effects of metropolitan-wide quarantine on the spread of COVID-19 in public space and households
Mingwang Shen, Zhihang Peng, Yuming Guo, Libin Rong, Yan Li, Yanni Xiao, Guihua Zhuang, Lei Zhang
Abstract
Hubei province in China has completed cycle of quarantine-resumption in 23rd Janauary and 8th April 2020, providing a unique opportunity as for now to assess its intervention impact and the pattern of SARS-COV-2 transmission during the quarantine period. In this study, we evaluate the impact of the metropolitan-wide quarantine on the trend and transmission route of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei, China. The intervention reduces more than 70% of new infections in both households and the public space, as well as the deaths caused by COVID-19 pneumonia. Household transmission is the dominant route of disease spread regardless of quarantine. This will provide important evidence and scientific insights to other worldwide countries that are currently under quarantine.