Climate Change, Summer Temperature, and Heat-Related Mortality in Finland: Multicohort Study with Projections for a Sustainable vs. Fossil-Fueled Future to 2050
Mika Kivimäki, G. David Batty, Jaana Pentti, Juuso Suomi, Solja T. Nyberg, Joonas Merikanto, Kalle Nordling, Jenni Ervasti, Sakari Suominen, Antti‐Ilari Partanen, Sari Stenholm, Jukka Käyhkö, Jussi Vahtera
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Climate change scenarios illustrate various pathways in terms of global warming ranging from "sustainable development" (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1-1.9), the best-case scenario, to 'fossil-fueled development' (SSP5-8.5), the worst-case scenario. OBJECTIVES: We examined the extent to which increase in daily average urban summer temperature is associated with future cause-specific mortality and projected heat-related mortality burden for the current warming trend and these two scenarios. METHODS: . We examined associations of the summer heat index with risk of death by cause for all participants adjusting for a wide range of individual-level covariates and in subsidiary analyses using case-crossover design, computed the related period population attributable fraction (PAF), and projected change in PAF from summers 2000-2018 compared with those in 2030-2050. RESULTS: (95% CI: 0.96, 1.36), a finding replicated in case-crossover analysis. According to projections for 2030-2050, PAF of summertime cardiovascular mortality attributable to high heat will be 4.4% (1.8%-7.3%) under the sustainable development scenario, but 7.6% (3.2%-12.3%) under the fossil-fueled development scenario. In the six cities, the estimated annual number of summertime heat-related cardiovascular deaths under the two scenarios will be 174 and 298 for a total population of 1,759,468 people. DISCUSSION: times greater if future climate change is driven by fossil fuels rather than sustainable development. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12080.