A Critical Review of Climate Change Impact at a Global Scale on Cereal Crop Production
Ahsan Farooq, Nageen Farooq, Haseeb Akbar, Zia Ul Hassan, Shabbir H. Gheewala
Abstract
Food security can be under threat due to climate change, which has the potential to alter crop yield. Wheat, maize, and rice are major crops contributing to global food security. The impact of climate change on crop yield with different models and techniques has been projected; this article reviewed the worldwide impact of climate change on future wheat, rice, and maize production. Wheat and maize crop yields may increase due to climate change in colder regions and may decrease in the countries near the equator. The increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere may help wheat and maize crops regarding increased carbon intake in colder regions. The rice crop yield may decrease in almost all major rice-producing countries due to water scarcity, which can be amplified due to climate change. The impact of climate change on crop yield prediction involves uncertainties due to different crop models, global circulation models, and bias correction techniques. It is recommended to use multiple climatic models and more than one bias correction technique for better climatic projections. Adaptation measures could help to reduce the adverse impacts of future climate on agriculture. Shifting the planting calendar, irrigation and nutrient management, improving crop varieties, and expanding the agricultural areas are suggested as the most effective adaptation actions in response to climate change. The findings of this study may help policymakers to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).