Cascading tipping points of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean
Ida Kubiszewski, Vanessa M. Adams, Rachel Baird, Anne Boothroyd, Robert Costanza, Darla Hatton MacDonald, Glen Finau, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Catherine K. King, Matt A. King, Delphine Lannuzel, Elizabeth Leane, Jess Melbourne-Thomas, Can-Seng Ooi, Mala Raghavan, Valeria Senigaglia, Natalie Stoeckl, Jing Tian, Satoshi Yamazaki
Abstract
Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are key elements in the physical and biological Earth system. Human-induced climate change, and other human activities in the region, are leading to several potential interacting tipping points with major and irreversible consequences. Here, we examine eight potential physical, biological, chemical, and social Antarctic tipping points. These include ice sheets, ocean acidification, ocean circulation, species redistribution, invasive species, permafrost melting, local pollution, and the Antarctic Treaty System. We discuss the nature of each potential tipping point, its control variables, thresholds, timescales, and impacts, and focus on the potential for cumulative and cascading effects as a result of their interactions. The analysis provides substantial evidence of the need for more concerted and rapid action to limit climate change and to minimise the impacts of local human activities to avoid these cascading tipping points.