The Future of the Pig Industry After the Introduction of African Swine Fever into Asia

Abstract

Rapid outbreaks and the spread of African swine fever across China and other countries have resulted in the huge loss of pig populations and sustainability of the global food supply chain. Because the most vulnerable and affected segment will be the small holders of the pig population, transformation of the pig industry to medium- and large-scale farms, together with better standardized production systems and biosecurity, will facilitate future survival of the industry and can contribute substantially to food security. During the pork shortage, a looming food crisis changed protein consumption behavior from meat to alternative protein sources. The ASF outbreaks in Asia might render the virus deleterious to the global pig industry associated with globalization. Travelers and international trading are the major carriers of a human-driven disease such as the ASF virus. World demand for food is expected to increase due to population growth and change in consumption patterns. Available food supply at affordable prices is of importance for the sustainability of global food security. Agricultural sector plays a major role in food security by providing enough food for society. Agricultural productivity growth is necessary for both domestic use and exportation. However, the fluctuations of production volume in major exporting and importing countries can directly impact the world food balance. Normally, agricultural products in many regions are primarily for domestic consumption. However, there are a few countries that provide the large scale of the agricultural production to support exports. Several factors affect the success of livestock production systems including sustainable resource management, evolving agricultural technology, financial management, and animal disease control (Thornton, 2010). Climate change and deforestation could impact the sources of water and food supply. Urbanization can also generate pressure not only on reduction in agricultural land but also the entire supply chains for agricultural production (FAO, 2011). Moreover, trading limitations and regulations may have a negative impact on farmers and the agricultural sector, contributing to the food insecurity (FAO, 2016). Animal-based foods are considered complete and high-quality sources of major dietary proteins. As the demand of animal products increases, pork will continue as one of the main protein sources in Asia, and pig production will continue to be one of the major farm animals in the livestock subsector. Although production systems have been developed to improve production yields, animal disease outbreaks are still the greatest challenge on the pig production and pork protein security. In the last decade, major swine viral diseases such as porcine epidemic diarrhea and highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome have caused a direct impact on pig production leading to economic losses, especially in the low biosecurity farms (backyard to middle-scale farms) (Wang et al., 2016; Tian et al., 2007). It was not until August 2018 that African swine fever (ASF) has caused a major impact on pig production in China, and later in other neighboring countries, causing the worst economic crisis for the swine industry and the food security in the regions (Yun, 2020). During the past three decades, pig production has changed rapidly from smallholders to an intensive industry in many developing countries. In the developed countries, large-scale production systems have achieved high levels of production performance and become the main type of pig farming systems. Therefore, only a few traditional forms of pig production survive in the developed countries. In developing countries, large- and medium-scale production systems have also been practiced. However, the largest group of pig population is still found in the traditional small-scale production systems or backyard farming (Huynh et al., 2007; Thanapongtharm et al., 2016). Type of farm scales in Thailand is classified as smallholders (<50 pigs) and large-scale farming systems. In 2018, Thailand’s Department of Livestock Development reported that the majority of swine household was smallholders (93.51%), while the 6.48% of large-scale farms were classified as small farms for 4.98% (50 to 500 pigs), medium farms for 1.37% (500 to5,000 pigs), and large farms for 0.13% (>5,000 pigs). The smallholders are classified into two types: backyards and commercial smallholders (Charoensook et al., 2013; Thanapongtharm et al., 2016). The backyards commonly have native pigs either for breeding or fattening, or both. Although the total swine population increased, the average number of the smallholders declined, whereas the number of pigs per household increased. According to Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics, modern and intensive pig production systems in Thailand have been growing at a rate of 8.90% per year during 2014 to 2018. It could be speculated that Thai swine production has moved to intensive production systems consisting of more than 75% of the pig population in the country since the smallholders could not compete with the industrialized farms in terms of the production costs and performances (Thanapongtharm et al., 2016). The development of technology, knowledge, and innovation has resulted in opportunities to improve management, housing, breeding, and feeding methods. In addition, the performance parameters of sows and growing pigs have been available on a computerized recording system to maximize the potential of sow and herd productivity (Udomprasert et al., 1993). These factors have also been the driving forces of the production growth and export opportunities of pig industry in Asia, including Thailand. Over the past 30 yr, pigs weaned per sow per year have increased from 20 to 30 pigs in high-performance herds (Koketsu et al., 2017). The better performances could be due to the efficiency of the better genetic lines and management leading to increased herd productivity, including litter per sow per year, total born per litter, and born alive per litter (Koketsu et al., 2017). In recent decades, massive growth in pig production in the Asia-Pacific region has been recognized, whereas pig numbers in the United States and European Union are increasing slowly or holding steady. Major pig production areas are in Asia (mainly in China possessing over 50% of the world pig population), the European Union, the United States, Brazil, and Russia (USDA, 2020). China has been known as the world’s largest pig production and pork consumption country. Therefore, Chinese pig production is for domestic consumption. In 2016, pork consumption in China was ~54.98 million tons, which required around 1.62 million tons of imported pork to supply the domestic demand (FAO, 2018). However, Rabobank estimated that pork imports in China increased to 2 million tons in the first half of 2019 because the Chinese pork production had dropped up to 55% from the ASF outbreak. Moreover, ASF outbreaks cause serious consequences for other high pork consumption countries in Asia, including Hong Kong (SAR-PRC), Japan, Republic of China (Taiwan), Malaysia, and Republic of Korea, which require massive pork imports to supply their domestic consumption. ASF is one of the economically important viral diseases in the swine industry. Originating in Africa, ASF did spread across Europe through Georgia in 2007 (Sánchez-Cordón et al., 2018). The disease has gradually spread to other countries in the Caucasian region, and the Russian Federation, Eastern and Central Europe, and more recently Western Europe (Belgium). Since China confirmed the first case of ASF, the virus has already spread throughout the country within a few months and beyond its borders, unpredictably, across Asia. The disease continuously affects many pig production countries in Asia (Yun, 2020; Figure 1). ASF outbreaks in Asia-Pacific region after the first outbreak in China. Starting from 2018 to early 2020, the outbreak of ASF has been reported in 21 countries in different regions around the world. In the Asia-Pacific region, the ASF outbreak has been found in at least 14 countries including Mongolia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Hong Kong (SAR-PRC), Korea (Dem. People’s Rep.), Laos, the Philippines, Myanmar, Republic of Korea, Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and India (OIE, 2020). The Chinese government reported the outbreak of ASF in August 2018. Since the first ASF outbreak, more than 1 million pigs have been culled across China due to disease outbreaks in an attempt to stop ASF from spreading (Yun, 2020). Nevertheless, data showed that the outbreak resulted in a higher number of culled animals affecting directly to the small holders to be out of the pig business. Pig production loss was not only in the infected farms but also loss of producers whose farms were within the affected zones. Rabobank estimated that China’s pork production decreased by 25% in 2019 and by another 10% to 15% in 2020. A final prediction of as much as 700 million pigs lost would account for half the world’s pigs before the ASF outbreak. Furthermore, almost 70% of all outbreaks were found in the small herds having <50 animals (Figure 2). This is due to less awareness of the small holders regarding the implementation of proper biosecurity. Interestingly, ASF did spread across the whole country of China within 3 mo. Relevant factors in the spreading of ASF throughout the country included (1) the lack of live pig movement control, (2) insufficient capacity for rapid ASF detection, (3) inadequate animal quarantine, and (4) enforcement of transport bans (Wang et al., 2018). During the ASF outbreak, limited spaces for disposal of infected pigs and carcasses forced farmers in many areas to fail in the management of infected carcasses appropriately, resulting in the disposal of dead animals on roads, in the rivers, or in the forest. Moreover, this situation led farmers to sell their pigs to the slaughterhouses for quick cash. Therefore, tons of infected pigs were sold to market causing contaminated pork products entering the supply chains and spreading across China and the neighboring countries (Schulz et al., 2019; Yun, 2020). ASF outbreak in a typical small holder in Asia. During the past 10 yr, the fluctuations of pork prices depended on market forces. However, the ASF outbreak in China had a dramatic change in the fluctuation of pork prices. China’s pork production was massively disrupted, resulting in the highest pork prices ever and impacting to the market prices of other protein sources such as chicken meat and aquaculture products. Due to the increasing demand for pork in China, the control of live pig and pig product movement between regions in China is very difficult. Pork prices in China surged 47% in August 2019 (Yun, 2020). In addition, Rabobank estimated that pork prices could go even higher (Rabobank, 2019). China has attempted to supply the local demand by releasing large volumes of pork from state cold stores, but this has still not been enough. Consequently, declined domestic stocks and massive pig production loss in China significantly have had a major impact on global food security. In February 2019, ASF outbreak was first confirmed in a northern province of Vietnam by Vietnam Department of Livestock Production, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD, 2019). The ASF virus isolated belonging to genotype 2 was officially reported shortly after, with 100% similarity to the Chinese strain (Le et al., 2019). The occurrence of this ASF outbreak, though it may have been predicted a risk transmission couples of months earlier while the Chinese pig herds had been undergoing the ASF epidemics. Since ASF is an emerging disease, then the strategies and implementation of disease prevention and control from several local regulatory authorities, and pig farms were probably subjective with not enough experience and were unable to control the spreading. Trading, human travel between countries, movement of animals, and animal products are frequent and quite complicated to prevent the risk of ASF transmission and control. However, surveillance to prevent the entry of this virus into the territory requires a more comprehensive policy, laboratory and even a rapid response procedures and human resources for abnormal outbreak identification, testing and rapid actions to localize and confine the outbreaks. Meanwhile, the possibilities of ASF spread are through many routes such as roads, waterways, railways, and airways with associated with human activities and trading. The remarked feature of ASF virus is the long-term persistence and viability of the virus in contaminated fomites, foods, and feeds originated from infected pigs, which is an extremely favorable basis as a human-driven disease (FAO, 2017; Sánchez-Cordón et al., 2018; Mazur-Panasiuk et al., 2019). Immediately after penetrating the Vietnamese pig herds, the spreading occurred quite rapidly. After a few months, the epidemic reached its peak, having spread to more than 8,200 communes in 63 provinces and cities within 9 mo (Figure 3). After 1 year, the loss officially reported due to the ASF epidemic was ~6 million head (accounting for 21.5% of the total herd), equivalent to the total pork weight loss of 342,091 tons (accounting for 9.0% of total pork production in the country). In Vietnam, pork production accounts for 71.5% of the livestock industry (in 2018) and is the main source of meat for local consumer diets. Therefore, the role of pork production is very important to the Vietnamese people and socio-economic activities associated with agriculture policies, food security, animal feed, veterinary, jobs, science and education, transportation, and other related activities. Comparing to the year before the ASF outbreak, the Vietnamese total pig herd and pork production volume decreased by 11.5% and 13.8%, respectively. The cumulative reduction in the total pig herd due to ASF immediately prompted the rapid growth of poultry production (16.5%), ruminant (over 5.0%), and other farm animals (over 3.0%) as well as rapidly increased pork imports in 2019 (63.0%). Estimated Vietnamese pig holding density (A) and ASF-affected communes in Vietnam (Source: Vietnam DAH, 2020). Crisis of pork were the ASF epidemic was at its infected pigs and pigs in the infected are culled to stop the spreading. The very low pork in the epidemic with the higher pork prices in the areas are a for due to the of pork throughout the of pork were or have been such as the livestock sector, pork production and local supply and disease prevention by biosecurity at levels to ASF and pork supply with ASF control food supply is such as and pig biosecurity, and at the increasing development of poultry and ruminant In the long-term necessary for of pigs with high biosecurity a to the small to medium farms on the areas of disease together with huge in imported and farm is an early implementation to for the of pork The success of is on proper disease control to of the ASF virus still in the infected areas due to the virus persistence in the ASF has become in several pig production areas in ASF virus from the pig herds or from the country in is a challenge and it may ASF and of the virus in the could have the of the small to medium farms and even the industry farms with biosecurity. In to ASF, the Vietnamese pig production has also been with several major and 2013; et al., 2019; et al., 2019). are to several major including farming in the ASF virus contaminated proper procedures to pigs for risk on the supply within and between countries, and procedures on contaminated water and It be that have not a major role in the ASF transmission in countries. However, it is would be a of the later in the infected countries. The and implementation of and by and local to improve the and farming on ASF control are be and to be to and disease consequences to and sustainable on and development are more and for the disease control for the farmers in the infected countries. The spreading and persistence of ASF is associated with traditional small-scale production and the of disease prevention and control strategies and 2018). The traditional farmers are the most for disease control and prevention due to having levels of low biosecurity of low with and limited to proper the small-scale production systems are at risk for ASF into a Vietnam as an of a country spread through traditional small-scale The Vietnamese animals, and the very not only in terms of but also in terms of and emerging Vietnam is the world’s most country. The density of people and and animals is in the of Vietnam is rapid growth of livestock In 2018, the total pig herd was officially estimated at the largest of pork in the world. The pig production increased in not only in large-scale farms but also in farming from backyard farms and and However, the estimated number of pigs in the whole country had over million in due to the rapid increase of small farms which were not The small and pig production still accounts for a high with a total of million pigs estimated over 50% of pigs This a and for animals, and The spread of ASF in Vietnam is to be the disease occurred in backyard small farms because pigs are or with food and from and pigs were not and for and the pigs were then sold to the local slaughterhouses and later the virus would spread into the and supply chain. the local outbreaks to spread through small farms, the farms having biosecurity and farming from to including the of ASF virus in the many would its into the In addition, the of meat from Vietnamese or directly from the local slaughterhouses could facilitate the spreading of the virus there are huge numbers of pig farming with human to the and food for feeding pigs in to of pig feed, leading to the higher risk of infected et al., 2019). the major ASF rapidly and in the Vietnamese pig herds inadequate surveillance and proper found the and with the authorities, on ASF prevention and on the biosecurity to backyard farms as well as and activities of people together with the of food supply ASF virus is by and not high spread in the infected pigs are and et al., et al., but the to and rapid transmission of virus in the role of known as human-driven et al., especially for highly pork food chains in the domestic pig sector in Asia. and long-term survival are of important factors in virus transmission the human and other (FAO, 2017; Sánchez-Cordón et al., 2018; et al., 2019). A high risk of ASF into Thailand is considered since the country is by the neighboring countries. on the risk of ASF into Thailand response it could cause economic at least 2019). It be that the limited for pigs and of the farmers might to food insecurity in the future having ASF in the country. The Thai government million on the for on the between the Livestock Department with swine and the has been for ASF This is of three outbreak, and and for the risk control associated with the ASF including (1) movement of pigs and pork products the (2) and from the ASF affected and (3) pigs, and from the ASF risk The development of disease of laboratory and increased awareness is In addition, biosecurity has been (Figure by increasing in management, capacity and However, backyard farms might become the risk in ASF outbreak. and awareness of local farmers at the areas are important for disease control in New biosecurity having ASF in the (1) the entry (2) in the (3) the and (4) and awareness of the farm After ASF outbreak, the global food security will be by a growing demand for agricultural products and the of productivity by This in pork has to the pork prices and changed in meat consumption behavior to other alternative protein sources. Rabobank showed that the global animal protein production was in It might be because of a dramatic in Chinese pork production while the other meat production was (Figure European Union has become the for pork products from million tons in 2018 to million tons in 2019 after ASF outbreak in Asia (USDA, 2020). The United States, and are the major pork the highest number of pigs in the China is still known as a of It is not only for are also imported from while poultry imports are also increased from and the European and China livestock production weight (Source: Furthermore, the impact of prices on costs of livestock production would impact livestock producers because to 70% of pig production are Therefore, the has a dramatic in small-scale farms to the large-scale farms since the to the supply and the of and the traditional small scale and backyard farming would gradually However, the ASF crisis would to the potential to be major in the future pig industry. ASF herds or countries would for of Therefore, the transformation of the pig industry from backyard and small scale to medium- and large-scale farms together with better standardized production systems and biosecurity would survive in the the pig production has changed to the medium- to large-scale production systems in many countries. However, the of the pig industry in the region is still unable to control the pig within or between countries due to high demand in and trading. The highly of pork production and due to of people could increase the risk of into other countries et al., 2019; et al., 2019). During the disease 2019 situation et al., 2020; of within and countries has had a on the control of ASF during the However, after all countries international travel ASF control strategies not be Rapid outbreaks and the spread of ASF across China and other countries, resulting in the huge loss of pig populations and sustainability in the food supply chain. ASF outbreak has impact on the global protein with the of pork production and consumption. The pork prices due to the of pork have been increased in Asia. A looming food crisis has changed meat consumption behavior to other alternative protein sources. In the most affected and most vulnerable of the pig population will be the small of the pig industry to medium- and large-scale farms together with better standardized production systems and biosecurity would survive in the productivity can also contribute substantially to food security. Therefore, the disease control strategies of pig production systems in Asia are Since ASF has been known as a human-driven disease, the development of disease control and the with the and farmers could still be of importance in the ASF control of have of a and at the of Thailand. at in in at the of in had the at in experience swine farm and areas are on swine disease control to improve the and a and at the of and in of at the of Thailand and of in in many in the of and of diseases and in on pig several on diseases and on ASF by is a native of Thailand. in from Thailand and from in is as a at on emerging diseases in animals and is an at the Department of and of and over of swine viral and other emerging diseases and development of are of

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