Green hydrogen and chemical production from solar energy in Pakistan: A geospatial, techno-economic, and environmental assessment
Muhammad Mustafa Tahir, Abiha Abbas, Rofice Dickson
Abstract
This study evaluates the techno-economic and environmental feasibility of converting solar energy into green hydrogen and chemicals in Pakistan. High-resolution geographic information system (GIS) data was used to identify optimal land areas based on six critical geospatial factors: land availability, water and road access, water stress, slope, and proximity to protected regions. By applying exclusion criteria, suitable sites for hydrogen production were mapped, and clustering analysis was employed to identify locations for large-scale facilities equipped with photovoltaic (PV) and electrolyzer systems. A discounted cash flow analysis was performed to estimate both 2024 and projected (2050) technical hydrogen production potential, as well as the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Scenarios for 2050 were developed, incorporating projected reductions in capital expenditures. In addition, the levelized costs of ammonia and methanol were assessed. Finally, cradle-to-grave life cycle analysis (LCA) was conducted to quantify the associated greenhouse gas reduction benefits. The results indicate that 8.07% of Pakistan's land area is suitable for green hydrogen and chemical production, with large clusters (1001–4000 km 2 ) located in southern Sindh and Balochistan. The estimated technical hydrogen production potential reaches 68.96 million metric tons per year (Mt/year), with an LCOH ranging from $3.90 to $4.27 per kilogram. A cradle-to-grave LCA suggests an annual emission reduction potential of 308.0 Mt of CO 2 -equivalent, positioning Pakistan as a significant contributor to the global hydrogen export market. • Technical potential of solar energy conversion to H 2 and chemicals assessed in Pakistan. • Techno-economic analysis, site suitability, and life cycle assessment were performed. • 8.07% of Pakistan's land is suitable for solar-based H 2 and chemical production. • H 2 production potential is estimated at 68.96 Mt/year, with an LCOH range of $3.90 to $4.27/kg. • CO 2 emissions could be reduced by 308.0 Mt annually.