Tropical forest carbon offsets deliver partial gains amid persistent over-crediting
Yuzhi Tang, Chao Yang, Haishan Wu, Zihao Xu, Linlin Tan, Wei Tu, Bowen Li, Zhaopeng Li, Zhijun Wang, Kai Guo, Siting Xiong, Shoubin Chen, Bo Zhang, Jindong Tian, Yu Hu, Zhipeng Chen, Jonathan M. Chase, Qingquan Li
Abstract
REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation Plus) projects generate carbon credits to offset emissions, but recent studies have questioned their effectiveness. We evaluated 52 voluntary REDD+ projects across 12 tropical countries using synthetic control methods. Only a minority of project units showed statistically significant reductions in deforestation, and just 19% met their reported emissions targets. Nonetheless, many underperforming projects still delivered partial climate benefits, with an estimated 13.2% of tradable credits supported by counterfactual analysis. Effectiveness varied by region, with stronger performance in Brazil and Africa. Although systematic over-crediting remains a concern, our results suggest greater climate benefits than previous assessments. Improving baseline methodologies and strengthening verification frameworks will be essential for enhancing the credibility and impact of forest carbon offsets.