Time Scales of Human Mpox Transmission in The Netherlands
Fuminari Miura, Jantien A. Backer, Gini van Rijckevorsel, Roisin Bavalia, Stijn Raven, Mariska Petrignani, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Jacco Wallinga, for the Dutch Mpox Response Team, Birgit van Benthem, Diederik Brandwagt, Hanna Bos, Colette van Bokhoven-Rombouts, Lian Bovée, Chantal P. Bleeker‐Rovers, Brigitte van Cleef, Alje P. van Dam, Rik van Dael, Annemiek A. van der Eijk, Pauline M. Ellerbroek, Catharina van Ewijk, Eelco Franz, Corine H. GeurtsvanKessel, Joke van der Giessen, Hannelore M Götz, Josette M W Häger, Susan van den Hof, Elske Hoornenborg, Putri Hintaran, Jørgen de Jonge, Rosa Joosten, Marion Koopmans, Kevin Kosterman, Jente Lange, Tjalling Leenstra, Daisy Ooms, Danielle Oorsprong, Eline Op de Coul, Demi Reurings, Gini van Rijckevorsel, Gregorius J. Sips, Sacha F. de Stoppelaar, Albert M. Vollaard, Bettie Voordouw, Harry Vennema, Henry J.C. de Vries, Karin Ellen Veldkamp, Klaartje Weijdema, Geert Westerhuis, Margreet J.M. te Wierik, Matthijs R. A. Welkers, Toos Waegemaekers, Jacco Wallinga, Paul Zantkuijl
Abstract
Mpox has spread rapidly to many countries in nonendemic regions. After reviewing detailed exposure histories of 109 pairs of mpox cases in the Netherlands, we identified 34 pairs where transmission was likely and the infectee reported a single potential infector with a mean serial interval of 10.1 days (95% credible interval, 6.6-14.7 days). Further investigation into pairs from 1 regional public health service revealed that presymptomatic transmission may have occurred in 5 of 18 pairs. These findings emphasize that precaution remains key, regardless of the presence of recognizable symptoms of mpox.