The impact on climate and emissions of clean household cooking energy policies in Tanzania
Borgar Aamaas, Lars Kåre Grimsby
Abstract
The transition to cleaner cooking fuels currently ongoing in many low- and middle-income countries may have benefits for health, but also climate. We have studied the climate implications of the SE4ALL policy goal in Tanzania of “75 percent access to modern cooking solutions by 2030” in which mainly firewood and charcoal are replaced by LPG and electricity. To see the long-term climate benefit, we have estimated the reduction in CO 2 -equivalent emissions (GWP 100 ) and effect on global temperature until 2100 relative to the baseline for three explorative scenarios with different levels of ambition: baseline growth to nearly complete transition to modern cooking. Due to population growth the energy demand and CO 2 -eq. emissions increase even in the most ambitious energy transition scenario. We model reduction in global temperature in 2100 relative to the baseline to be between −0.63 and −2.9 milli °C. While we confirm the climate benefit of a transition to cleaner cooking fuels in households, the benefit is smaller than previously thought. This is mainly due to a much weaker radiative forcing of black carbon and somewhat stronger radiative forcing for organic carbon, in the climate parameters from IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. • We analyze the policy goal of 75% modern cooking by 2030 in Tanzania. • We have modelled the impact on climate and emissions of household cooking. • We have modelled different ambitions levels of modern and clean household cooking. • The reduced global warming may be as large as −3.8 milli °C in 2100. • New knowledge on weaker radiative forcing of black carbon reduces the benefit.