Microgrids and distribution system resilience assessment: A multi-objective robust-stochastic optimization approach considering social behavior using a deep learning modeling
Mahsa Ebadat Parast, Maryam Mousavian, Mohammad Hassan Nazari, Seyed Hossein Hosseinian
Abstract
In this paper, a new multi-objective two-stage robust-stochastic (MOTSRS) optimization approach for assessing microgrids and distribution system resilience is proposed. A novel approach based on deep learning is presented to model social behavior, specifically Social Reactions to Disasters (SRDs), in assessing microgrid and distribution system resilience. It is initially demonstrated that the proposed robust-stochastic approach is efficient for assessing the resilience of microgrids and distribution systems. A new resilience criterion is also proposed to be used for sensitivity analyses at the conservative level of the model. Subsequently, the effect of SRDs on system resilience is investigated through a supervised deep regression method. First, a large dataset is generated through a proposed nested Monte Carlo simulation. A numerical feature and five binary social behavior features are included in the dataset. Next, a feedforward neural network is utilized to predict the load during both normal and disaster circumstances based on the six features. The proposed supervised deep regression model with mean squared errors between 2e-5 and 2e-6 is capable of predicting electrical load during normal and disaster events. It is concluded that the resilience metrics of MGs, as well as expected operation costs and regret values, are influenced by the SRD effect.