Unequal Health Risks and Attributable Mortality Burden of Source-Specific PM<sub>2.5</sub> in China
Peng Du, Hang Du, Wenjing Zhang, Kailai Lu, Can Zhang, Jie Ban, Yiyi Wang, Ting Liu, Jianlin Hu, Tiantian Li
Abstract
Anthropogenic emissions, originating from human activities, stand as the primary contributors to PM 2.5, which is recognized as a global health threat. The disease burden associated with PM 2.5 has been extensively documented. However, the prevailing estimations have predominantly relied on PM 2.5 exposure-response functions, neglecting the distinct risks posed by PM 2.5 from various sources. China has experienced a significant reduction in the PM 2.5 concentration due to stringent emission controls. With diverse sources and abundant mortality data, this situation provides a unique opportunity to estimate short-term source-specific attributable mortality. Our approach involves an integrated unequal health risk-oriented modeling in China, incorporating a source-oriented Community Multiscale Air Quality model, an adjustment and downscaling method for exposure measurement, a generalized linear model with random-effects meta-analysis, and premature mortality estimation. Adhering to the unequal health risk concept, we calculated the attributable mortality of multiple PM 2.5 sources by determining the source risk-adjusted factor. In this study, we observed varying excess risks associated with multiple PM 2.5 sources, with transportation-related PM 2.5 exhibiting the most substantial association. An interquartile range increase (7.65 μg/m 3 ) was linked to a 1.98% higher daily nonaccidental mortality. Residential use- and transportation-related PM 2.5 emerged as the two principal sources of premature mortality. In 2018, a remarkable 53,381 avoiding deaths were estimated compared to 2013, and over 67% of these were attributed to reductions in coal-dependent sources. Notably, transportation-related PM 2.5 emerged as the largest contributor to premature mortality in 2018. This study underscores the significance of a new source-oriented health risk assessment to support actions aimed at reducing air pollution. It strongly advocates for heightened attention to PM 2.5 reductions in the transportation sector in China.