The impact of blending mandates on biofuel consumption, production, emission reductions and fuel prices
Liv Lundberg, Olivia Cintas, Jonas Zetterholm
Abstract
The transport sector accounts for about 20% of EU's GHG-emissions. Progress in emission reductions has been slow and primarily driven by biofuels promoted through national blending mandates. The mandates differ in whether they are measured in volume, energy, or emission reduction and in how gasoline and diesel are targeted. Due to this, national mandates and their effects have not previously been quantitatively compared on an EU level. In this article we convert the mandates for all EU member states between 2009 and 2020 to a common unit and study their impact on biofuel consumption, production, emission reductions and fuel prices. We find that mandates are driving biofuel consumption in the EU and correlates with emission reductions. Increased mandates have however often been fulfilled by blending biofuels eligible for double counting. We also find that reduction mandates have been effective in encouraging high-performance biofuels. For historical fuel prices, we do not see a clear correlation between countries' shares of biofuel and consumer fuel prices while the global oil price has a considerable impact. For biofuel production, increased demand drive investments in the EU, but when it comes to localisation of new plants factors such as local infrastructure are more important than national mandates.