Artificial intelligence predicts normal summer monsoon rainfall for India in 2023
Udit Narang, Kushal Juneja, Pankaj Upadhyaya, Popat Salunke, Tanmoy Chakraborty, Swadhin K. Behera, Saroj K. Mishra, Akhil Dev Suresh
Abstract
Inaccuracy in the All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) forecast has major repercussions for India's economy and people's daily lives. Improving the accuracy of AISMR forecasts remains a challenge. An attempt is made here to address this problem by taking advantage of recent advances in machine learning techniques. The data-driven models trained with historical AISMR data, the Niño3.4 index, and categorical Indian Ocean Dipole values outperform the traditional physical models, and the best-performing model predicts that the 2023 AISMR will be roughly 790 mm, which is typical of a normal monsoon year.
Topics & Concepts
MonsoonCategorical variableIndian Ocean DipoleClimatologyIndian oceanIndex (typography)Environmental scienceMeteorologyComputer scienceGeographyGeologyOceanographyMachine learningWorld Wide WebClimate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsHydrological Forecasting Using AI