Material footprint and economic growth decoupling toward green development: Comparative analysis of United States, the European Union and the BRICS countries

Abstract

In the pursuit of sustainable resource management, understanding the relationship between economic growth and material consumption is crucial. This study investigates the decoupling dynamics between material footprint (MF) and GDP across the European Union (EU), the United States, and BRICS countries from 1995 to 2023. Using Tapio decoupling indicators and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method, we assess temporal trends and identify the driving forces of MF changes. The results reveal significant regional and national disparities. While BRICS countries exhibit a higher overall decoupling rate than the EU, their decoupling is mostly weak, whereas the EU shows higher instances of strong decoupling, albeit with greater volatility. The United States demonstrates a relatively stable decoupling trend with the highest share of strong decoupling years among the studied economies. The income effect emerges as the dominant driver of MF growth, especially in emerging economies such as China and India. In contrast, several high-income EU countries show signs of “peaking” income effects. Population growth also contributes positively to MF, particularly in South Africa and Brazil, while some EU countries, such as those in the Baltic region, experience negative population effects due to demographic decline. Technological progress is reflected in the suppressive intensity effect, especially in China, Germany, and the U.S., while structural effects differ substantially across countries. The study highlights the need for differentiated policy responses, technological innovation, and structural transformation to enable sustainable decoupling.

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