Insights into the future of soil erosion

Abstract

Integrating a long-established soil erosion model with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios, Borrelli et al. (1) set out to meet the needs of policymakers and earth-system modelers to better understand the future of soil erosion this century. Policymakers need this insight because of the constraints erosion places on achievement of multiple sustainable development goals including zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, no poverty, and life on land (2). The record of humankind does not induce confidence, evidencing our effect on soil distribution and quality and the consequences for past civilizations (3). The impact that soil erosion and deposition has on biogeochemical cycles (4⇓–6) is leading to a recognition that earth-system models (ESMs) must look beyond vertical exchanges between soil and atmosphere and address carbon cycle perturbation cause by lateral transport of soil from land to ocean (7). The study by Borrelli et al. (1) is, therefore, timely. Research, dating back as far as the 1930s and the stimulus of the Dust Bowl, has provided valuable insights into the causes and consequences of soil erosion. However, global synthesis of erosion rates measured using a wide range of methodologies, has proven to be extremely challenging (8). By applying an empirical soil erosion model employing consistent and high spatial resolution global datasets, Borrelli et al. (1) address this challenge and offer simulations that can be coupled in a consistent manner to land use, soil conservation, and climate change scenarios. Comparing modeled soil erosion for 2015 and 2070, Borrelli et al. (1) identify potential for ∼10% reduction in global rates under a sustainability-focused scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6), ∼10% increase in global rates for a fossil-fuel intensive scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5), and relatively little change (+2%) for an intermediate scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5). These results suggest cobenefits for erosion reduction in attempts to pursue a path … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: t.a.quine{at}exeter.ac.uk. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Topics & Concepts