Global hydrogen trade pathways: A review of modelling advances and challenges

Abstract

Trade of hydrogen, as an energy commodity, would enable its widespread use in global energy systems. Hydrogen, unlike electricity, could be traded globally in its pure form or as a derivative compound (e.g. ammonia). The development and potential size of global hydrogen trade remains uncertain due to technological, economic, infrastructural, and political complexities. We critically review how hydrogen trade models represent: (i) hydrogen supply and demand; (ii) derivatives supply and demand; (iii) hydrogen and derivative trade; and (iv) policy aspects affecting hydrogen scale-up. While energy system models have the most detailed representation of hydrogen production and end-use demands, supply chain and techno-economic models have more detailed representations of trade supply chains of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives. The implications of hydrogen policies have received limited consideration across all three model paradigms. Consequently, none of these approaches is yet to successfully and comprehensively represent the complexity of hydrogen and derivative trade systems. • We examine three types of models used to understand hydrogen trade potential. • Energy system models represent hydrogen production and end-use demands in detail. • Supply chain and techno-economic models best represent trade supply chains. • None of these models can yet represent the full complexity of hydrogen trade systems. • Model improvement should target derivatives, trade infrastructure, and policy.

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