Dengue Endemicity, Force of Infection, and Variation in Transmission Intensity in 13 Endemic Countries
Joshua Nealon, Alain Bouckenooghe, Margarita Cortés, Laurent Coudeville, Carina Frago, Denis Macina, Clarence C. Tam
Abstract
Dengue endemicity varies but comparative, multicountry data are extremely limited. An improved understanding is needed to prioritize prevention, including vaccination, which is currently recommended only under specific epidemiological conditions. We used serological study data from 46 geographical sites in 13 countries to estimate dengue force of infection (FOI, the proportion of children seroconverting per year) under assumptions of either age-constant or age-varying FOI, and the age at which 50% and 80% of children had been infected. After exclusions, 13 661 subjects were included. Estimated constant FOI varied widely, from 1.7% (Singapore) to 24.1% (the Philippines). In the site-level analysis 44 sites (96%) reached 50% seroconversion and 35 sites (75%) reached 80% seroconversion by age 18 years, with significant heterogeneity. These findings confirm that children living in dengue-endemic countries receive intense early dengue exposure, increasing risk of secondary infection, and imply serosurveys at fine spatial resolutions are needed to inform vaccination campaigns.