An analysis of factors influencing structure loss resulting from the 2018 Camp Fire
Austin Troy, Jason J. Moghaddas, D. A. Schmidt, J. Shane Romsos, David B. Sapsis, William L. Brewer, Tadashi Moody
Abstract
Despite the intensity of the 2018 Camp Fire, many structures survived in heavily burned areas. Logistic regressions were run to determine which structural and parcel characteristics predicted structure survival using two data sets. The first, CAL FIRE’s Damage Inspections (DINS) dataset, included 14 518 destroyed and 622 partially damaged structures. The second, combining information from the DINS and Defensible Space (DINS+DSPACE) databases, had many more attributes and was better balanced between destroyed (n = 728) and surviving (n = 676) structures, but was much smaller. Several approaches were compared for filtering out records with null values. Results were largely consistent with previously literature, finding that structural hardness factors (e.g. double-paned windows, enclosed eaves, ignition-resistant roofs and siding, no vents, etc.) are important in determining structure survival. Newer structures, built after California’s recent (2005 and 2007) fire safe building code updates, were more likely to survive, as were homes with higher improvement values. Mobile homes were far more likely to be destroyed. The role of fuel mitigation around structures was less conclusive; defensible space clearance had only a weak association with structure survival, although DINS+DSPACE results suggested a slight reduction in risk due to removing leaves and needles from gutters/roofs and keeping surrounding dead grass mowed.