Hybrid Statistical and Machine Learning Methods for Daily Evapotranspiration Modeling
Erdem Küçüktopçu, Emirhan Cemek, Bilal Cemek, Halis Şimşek
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) models, including artificial neural networks (ANN), generalized neural regression networks (GRNN), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy interface systems (ANFIS), have received considerable attention for their ability to provide accurate predictions in various problem domains. However, these models may produce inconsistent results when solving linear problems. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes hybridizations of ML and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to provide a more accurate and general forecasting model for evapotranspiration (ET0). The proposed models are developed and tested using daily ET0 data collected over 11 years (2010–2020) in the Samsun province of Türkiye. The results show that the ARIMA–GRNN model reduces the root mean square error by 48.38%, the ARIMA–ANFIS model by 8.56%, and the ARIMA–ANN model by 6.74% compared to the traditional ARIMA model. Consequently, the integration of ML with ARIMA models can offer more accurate and dependable prediction of daily ET0, which can be beneficial for many branches such as agriculture and water management that require dependable ET0 estimations.