The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control
Nicholas Kortessis, Margaret W. Simon, Michael Barfield, Gregory E. Glass, Burton H. Singer, Robert D. Holt
Abstract
Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity long-term regional R t —the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable local control, together with movement between populations, elevates long-term regional R t , and cumulative cases, and may even prevent disease eradication that is otherwise possible. For effective pandemic mitigation strategies, it is critical that models encompass both spatiotemporal heterogeneity in transmission and movement.
Topics & Concepts
PandemicCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Transmission (telecommunications)GeographyAsynchronous communicationDisease transmissionMovement controlInfectious disease (medical specialty)BiologyComputer scienceVirologyDiseaseMedicineTelecommunicationsPhysical medicine and rehabilitationPathologyCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsViral Infections and Outbreaks Research