HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects
Germano Ribeiro Neto, Sarra Kchouk, Lieke Melsen, Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Art Dewulf, Alexandre Cunha Costa, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues Martins, Pieter van Oel
Abstract
Abstract. Human actions induce and modify droughts. Yet, there remain scientific gaps regarding how anthropogenic dynamics and hydrological processes are intrinsically entangled in drought evolution. This poses the challenge of developing ways to evaluate human behavior and its pattern of co-evolution with the hydrological cycle, mainly related to water use and landscape modifications. We propose that prospect theory explains the emergence of drought impacts, such as crop losses and water shortage, if they are considered as failed welfare expectations (“prospects”) due to water shortage. This behavioral economic theory is dominantly applied to explain decision-making processes under uncertainty. We argue that it can also contribute to explaining socio-hydrological phenomena such as reservoir effects. This new approach can contribute to bridging natural and social sciences perspectives for more integrated drought management that takes into account the local context